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Views 755  l   Votes 21  l   2019.06.13 11:22

[Notice] Hunter Recruitment Probability Changes Preview Notice   [15]

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    https://bs.visualshower.com/en/1165631
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    Hello Captains, this is Natara!

    Today I’m here to announce some new changes on Hunter Recruitment probability, which is one of the most important part in Midgard.  

    With the changes, our Captains can recruit Hunters much faster than before which will help reduce the burden for making a much stronger team.

    The following changes will be implemented:

    <Changes Made>
    : Change in Hunter Recruitment Probability Distribution Method 
    The Hunter recruitment probability distribution method will change to be more intuitive.
    The characters with corresponding level will have same probability within the fixed probability. For ★3 Hunters, there will be no classification between new and existing Hunters.
    (ex: When there are 10 ★4 Hunters available to recruit, the probability of getting 1 ★4 Hunter using the Elite Request recruitment will be 0.1%.)

    : Probability Change in Hot Time Recruitment 
    The hot time event will now have a fixed probability value rather than an N% probability UP.
    (The probability will greatly increase to 400% up in contrast to the previous standard ★4 hot time)

    : Probability Change by Levels for Elite Request Recruitment
    The probability of recruiting ★4 and ★3 level Hunters will increase, whereas the recruitment probability for ★1 level Hunters will decrease. 
    More details for recruitment probability:

    ★4 Level - 0.30% → 1.0%
    ★3 Level - 4.74% → 5.0%
    ★2 Level - 18.99% → 19.0%
    ★1 Level - 75.97% → 75.0%

    : Probability Change by Levels for Event Recruitment: Specific Hunter Probability UP

    Events such as "Catch the NEW Hunter ___" will have a fixed probability rather than an N% probability UP.
    (The probability UP is equivalent to 400% of the previous events.)

    ★4 Level (Event Hunters) - 0.15% → 0.60%
    ★4 Level (Normal Hunters) - 0.25% → 0.40%
    ★3 Level - 4.75% → 5.00%
    ★2 Level - 18.97% → 19.00%
    ★1 Level - 75.89% → 75.00%

    : Probability Change by Levels for the Hunter Recruit Hot Time Event
    This includes events such as "(Month) Recruit Hot Time" and will have a fixed probability rather than an N% probability UP.
    If more than one Hunter is subject to the event, the probability will be distributed evenly within the fixed probability value.
    (The probability UP is equivalent to 400% of the previous standard ★4 Hunter Hot Time)

    ★4 Level (Event Hunters) - 0.05% → 0.60%
    ★4 Level (Normal Hunters) - 0.25% → 0.40%
    ★3 Level - 4.75% → 5.00%
    ★2 Level - 18.97% → 19.00%
    ★1 Level - 75.89% → 75.00%

    : Probability Change by Levels for Special Request Recruitment
    The probability of getting ★4 and ★3 Hunters will increase more when using special requests. The chances of getting ★4 Hunters will more than double! 

    ★4 Level - 0.89% → 2.00%
    ★3 Level - 14.17% → 21.00%
    ★2 Level - 84.95% → 77.00%

    : Probability Change by Levels for Legendary Request Recruitment
    The probability of getting ★4 level Hunters will greatly increase when using Legendary Requests.

    ★4 Level - 5.93% → 10.00%
    ★3 Level - 94.07% → 90.00%

    ※ These changes have not been finalized yet. The partial clauses and numerical values might partially change with the formal update.


    ※ ★3 Probability UP, Hot Time, and the probability for outfit recruitment will be updated in the near future.

    The changes will be applied after 2170 update.

    Please note that the changes might not be applied normally if your app is not updated to the newest version.

    We will continue to put in our best efforts so that your time in Midgard will be more enjoyable!

    Thank you.

    • zero0982 2019.06.14 11:06
      Siriusly you need to increase the probabilities of 4star hunters since there are more now
    • Calluzzar 2019.06.14 11:37
      This is good particularly to Blue Scrolls.
      Imagine 10% chance out of 100% percentage cap meaning you'll get most likely one 4★ for every 10 pulls.

      I'm glad they finally made it to an Absolute Number rather than Decimal Numbers and those numbers indicated under 1%. They're way too complicated to think that about for those No-math-nerds hahaha.
    • Sevia 2019.06.14 15:55

      "Imagine 10% chance out of 100% percentage cap meaning you'll get most likely one 4★ for every 10 pulls."

      That's not how Probability actually works. Sorry dude, but the math for pulls as you've stated does not work that way.... RNG functions under different concepts.

    • Calludus 2019.06.14 16:43
      Oof.. so can you please elaborate how RNG works here in simple way? I saw RaynerSin put some calculations in the past about the probability rates but it's way complicated to my understanding.. I didn't state specific hunter but as general, the tier they belong in. I don't mind about each Hunter's probabilities. Wherever game I had, I always think about that percentage range 100% to as guaranteed and my RNG way in simplest term.. well at the end of the day, RNG still RNG.. and it's random. Numbers are oozing like geysers.
    • CrySec 2019.06.15 17:26
      It's a binomial distribution. If you pull 10 times with a blue scroll, this will be your chance of getting ONE (random) 4* (so I'm calculating with the 10% here):

      (10C1) x (0,1)^1 x (0,9)^9 = 0,38742

      So that makes a whopping 39ish % chance for ONE 4* out of 10 freaking pulls with a blue scroll. Who even has that many without collecting them for a year?
      Doesn't sound so nice anymore, does it? :/

      Edit: Ragvard below me is right, I calculated for one 4*, the chance for getting one or more 4* all added together is indeed about 65%, which is still not a lot given how rare they are and how many 4*s there are now.
      Just for fun, I calculated how many blue scrolls you need to spend for a 99% chance to get one or more 4*s. It's 44 blue scrolls xD
    • Ragvard 2019.06.15 22:33
      Are you sure? Chance to NOT get 4* from 1 pull is 0.9, therefore, chance to NOT get even one 4* from 10 pulls is 0.9^10 ~ 0.35. So, chance to get at least one 4* from 10 pulls is 1 - 0.35 = 65%. But yeah, still far from 100%

      You calculate everything right for one 4*, but you forgot about two and more 4* from 10 scrolls.
    • Sevia 2019.06.15 19:49

      All hunters have a chance of being obtained, which is expressible as a number (pull rate). Pull rates are not essentially a guarantee. A 4*, for example, with a rate of "1 in 10" does not equate to: "This hunter will be obtained after five pulls." While each pull does nothing to increase the pull rate itself, it is trivial to state that more pulls will also contribute to getting a higher successful chance overall to recruit.

      You are never guaranteed anything, no matter how many times you try to dump your manda; the probability will infinitely approach 1 (100%) with each roll on the pulling pool even on the apparent best cases.

    • AIpha 2019.06.14 12:35
      I like this game but things like this make me distant from playing
    • BlackFriday 2019.06.14 23:19
      Me too I will just buy a the Nintendo switch and use that for mobile games. I cant believe that I was spending so much on low rates. I feel like at this rate I will never get to transcend any 4 star
    • 빈신 2019.06.15 00:37
      Never spend money on a game
    • 빈신 2019.06.15 00:37
      At least the percentages are official and out
    • BlastHydro 2019.06.15 06:28
      ok so basically I'm never getting a cool new 4 star on rate up because probably is low.
    • CrySec 2019.06.15 17:30
      How *generous* of you to increase the rates a little, it was about time since you released what, 10 new 4*s?
      Sorry, but I'm still salty that you managed to release two 4*s AT THE SAME TIME despite people telling you for months now that we'd like to have fewer 4*s and more 3*s in between again. Do you even care anymore!?
    • CamillaJane 2019.06.20 23:10
      Everyone: no please no more 4* hunters! There are too many!
      Visual Shower: I’ll release 2 at the same time if that’s what you want
    • Shitake 2019.06.17 11:42
      My luck suck anyway lol

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