Apaya Hello, my friends! I hope you guys are staying safe and having a great day!
Yesterday the great new op hunter, Estelle, was released.
I tried 240 times to catch her but, unfortunately, I didn't get her. However, I found some interesting results. Below is my gacha result.
1★ 189 71.6%
2★ 47 17.8%
3★ 28 10.6%
4★ 0 0.0 %
Total of 264
Since the middle one always gives at least 3★ hunters, I subtract 24 from 3★ hunters and it gives way interesting results!
1★ 189 78.7%
2★ 47 19.6%
3★ 4 1.7 %
4★ 0 0.0 %
Total of 240
It shows the probability to get at least 3★ hunters is 1.7% which has to be around 6%.
I draw binomial distribution B(240, 0.06) and get the probability to have 4 3★ hunters or less in 240 gacha. It was 0.1%. In statistics, it means if you try a hypothesis test on the probability to have at least 3★ hunters is 6% with alpha = 0.05, it rejects the probability to have at least 3★ hunters is 6%. It also rejects it with alpha = 0.002 which is not natural.
Am I the only one who thinks this gacha was broken?
Shailay 
JAR10S 
Natara 
Jpeg
Hey there.
Emm, even when VisualShower had released "official" data about the drop rates and the frequency of each class of unit along with their star tier (1-4*), since most of the people lack the mathematical knowledge to verify all of the information, we can't really say if all of the percentages expressed are 100% accurate.
.
However, our luck in practice always ends up on either having two options: Super horrible pulls or super good ones XD