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Views 296  l   Votes 1  l   2020.09.11 07:05

Hello English community! I have something to say about catching Estelle!   [14]

Apaya    Lv.  14
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    https://bs.visualshower.com/forum_en/1432121
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    Hello, my friends! I hope you guys are staying safe and having a great day! 

    Yesterday the great new op hunter, Estelle, was released. 

    I tried 240 times to catch her but, unfortunately, I didn't get her. However, I found some interesting results. Below is my gacha result.

    1★ 189  71.6%
    2★ 47   17.8%
    3★ 28   10.6%
    4★ 0     0.0 %
    Total of 264

    Since the middle one always gives at least 3★ hunters, I subtract 24 from 3★ hunters and it gives way interesting results! 

    1★ 189  78.7%
    2★ 47   19.6%
    3★ 4     1.7  %
    4★ 0     0.0 %
    Total of 240

    It shows the probability to get at least 3★ hunters is 1.7% which has to be around 6%.

    I draw binomial distribution B(240, 0.06) and get the probability to have 4 3★ hunters or less in 240 gacha. It was 0.1%. In statistics, it means if you try a hypothesis test on the probability to have at least 3★ hunters is 6% with alpha = 0.05, it rejects the probability to have at least 3★ hunters is 6%. It also rejects it with alpha = 0.002 which is not natural. 

    Am I the only one who thinks this gacha was broken?
    • Shailay 2020.09.11 07:40

      Hey there.
      Emm, even when VisualShower had released "official" data about the drop rates and the frequency of each class of unit along with their star tier (1-4*), since most of the people lack the mathematical knowledge to verify all of the information, we can't really say if all of the percentages expressed are 100% accurate.
      .
      However, our luck in practice always ends up on either having two options: Super horrible pulls or super good ones XD

    • Apaya 2020.09.11 16:55
      My point was about 1-4*-3* and it gives unbelievable results. Since I got many samples from the Chinese community, I will check if it is broken or not!
    • JAR10S 2020.09.11 08:09
      The data isn't enough tho since you based it on your pull only.Try gathering data or make a survey out of 10 people or more?
    • Zsub 2020.09.11 10:30
      The number of attempts at this level is statistically significant.
    • Apaya 2020.09.11 16:51
      Many Chinese players share their results and we got more than 1000 samples! I will do the math and lets see how it goes!
    • Nazure 2020.09.11 11:35
      Just got one 4* Katrina after using 600manda (two 10+1)
      guess u were really in bad luck @@ 10+1 twenty-four time & got no 4*?
    • Zsub 2020.09.11 16:35
      oh.. sweety.. look this article.
      https://bs.visualshower.com/index.php?mid=forum_zh&document_srl=1432135&rnd=1432677#comment_1432677
    • Apaya 2020.09.11 16:52
      You are so lucky! Thank you for sharing your result!
    • Zsub 2020.09.11 17:26
      에스텔이아니고 카트리나 뽑은 얘기를 지금 하네요..
    • Apaya 2020.09.11 18:26
      태4뽑 확률도 혹시 문제있나 보고있어서 10+1 뽑 2회에 4성 1, 에스텔 0인 샘플로 보고있습니다! 태4 확률은 나름 합리적인데 에스텔 확률은 여전히 말도안되네요. 늘 청석발전에 힘써주셔서 감사합니다 지섭님!
    • KYDERYDE 2020.09.11 23:40
      Nope, it is totally broken... i have spent over 5000 manda and did'nt get a single 3 star except for the one guaranteed... no 4 star either... fuckin broken...
    • Tohriu 2020.09.12 00:36
      Spent 6000 manda, no nat 4
    • Meshi 2020.09.12 07:26
      Cut to a montage of your face with all geometry flying everywhere, ngl this is pretty cool.
    • Cermia 2020.09.22 01:01
      maybe they should do something better than releasing a new banner like nerfing Geranium

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