Hello, my friends! I hope you guys are staying safe and having a great day!

Yesterday the great new op hunter, Estelle, was released.

I tried 240 times to catch her but, unfortunately, I didn't get her. However, I found some interesting results. Below is my gacha result.

1★ 189 71.6%

2★ 47 17.8%

3★ 28 10.6%

4★ 0 0.0 %

Total of 264

Since the middle one always gives at least 3★ hunters, I subtract 24 from 3★ hunters and it gives way interesting results!

1★ 189 78.7%

2★ 47 19.6%

3★ 4 1.7 %

4★ 0 0.0 %

Total of 240

It shows the probability to get at least 3★ hunters is 1.7% which has to be around 6%.

I draw binomial distribution B(240, 0.06) and get the probability to have 4 3★ hunters or less in 240 gacha. It was 0.1%. In statistics, it means if you try a hypothesis test on the probability to have at least 3★ hunters is 6% with alpha = 0.05, it rejects the probability to have at least 3★ hunters is 6%. It also rejects it with alpha = 0.002 which is not natural.

Am I the only one who thinks this gacha was broken?