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Hi my Chinese friends! I need your help!   [15]

Apaya    Lv.  14
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    https://bs.visualshower.com/forum_zh/1432135
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    First of all, I don't speak Chinese so I wrote my post in English. Thank you for understanding me.

    Hi! How are you guys doing? Are you guys having a good time with new op hunter Estelle? Sadly I am not because I spend 7200 mandas and didn't get her. 

    Below is my gacha result and I think this event is broken.

    1★ 189  71.6%
    2★ 47   17.8%
    3★ 28   10.6%
    4★ 0     0.0 %
    Total of 264

    Since the middle one always gives at least 3★ hunters, I subtract 24 from 3★ hunters and it gives way interesting results! 

    1★ 189  78.7%
    2★ 47   19.6%
    3★ 4     1.7  %
    4★ 0     0.0 %
    Total of 240

    It shows the probability to get at least 3★ hunters is 1.7% which has to be around 6%.

    Statistically, getting at most 4 at least 3★ hunters with 240 tries is only 0.1% which is not natural.

    I want to know if you guys having similar result as I do.

    Thank you for reading this and hope you guys catch her!
    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 11:11
      Can't agree this result anymore!

      Btw, I have some assumptions:

      ......1)Maybe Tier4 1% only works for newbie under lvl 30.

      ..... 2) For senior, I lay emphasis on tier3 firstly. If you had got 48Tier3/all 50 tier3 (i haven't count yet.) .
      Then your tier3 droprate may be:
      5%*(2/50)*0.6 + 5%*0.4
      It approaches to 2% , that your article's 1.7% falls in acceptable error area.

      ....3) i don't know probability about 'enroll ticket' .(Different from Manda. IDK its engliah name.)
      It works like another probability.

      ....4) New hero like Estella, 0.6%....., might be true, might be false.
      I don't have enough database to prove it.
      Only thing I know is, the Estella droprate for this enroll, newbie draw= senior draw.(only for Estella)
    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 11:23
      Also, princess connect redive droprate is 0.7%
      AND THIS GAME only 0.6%。。。。.
    • 卡尔在觉醒 2020.09.11 11:28

      1:16 times 10+1,2 Other ★4 Hunters+1 Estelle
      2:20 times 10+1,4 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle
      3:16 times 10+1,0 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle
      4:16 times 10+1,0 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle
      5:16 times 10+1,1 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle
      6:16 times 10+1,1 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle
      7:8 times 10+1,0 Other ★4 Hunters+1 Estelle
      8:6 times 10+1,2 Other ★4 Hunters+1 Estelle
      9:6 times 10+1,0 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle
      10:16 times 10+1,2 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle

      11:16 times 10+1,1 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle

      12:3 times 10+1,0 Other ★4 Hunters+1 Estelle

    • Zsub 2020.09.11 16:30
      13:16 times 10+1,1 Other ★4 Hunters+0 Estelle (my case)
    • Apaya 2020.09.11 16:46
      Thank you for collecting these amazing samples! I really appreciate it and hope to make BS better together!
    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 12:14
      以下是統計學時間。待會會翻成英文。
    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 12:25
      根據卡爾的樣本
      (由於他一直更新 我取試驗11以前的樣本 )
      p = 3÷152÷11 = 0.0018 = 0.18%
      N = 152 *11
      σ = √(p*(1-p)/N) = 1.002e-3 = 0.001
      在信心水準99.7% 下
      母體平均值應座落在[p- 3σ, p+ 3σ]
      代入p σ , 得
      母體平均值在[0 , 0.0048] 內
      但 0.6% 超過了 0.48%
      得公告機率0.6%矛盾 Q.E.D
    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 12:29
      附註
      總統大選民調通常採用信心水準95%已經了不起
      (兩個標準差)
      物理實驗才會用到三個標準差以上
    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 12:40
      Let''s ROCK with STATISTICS!

      According to the sample given by 卡尔在觉醒
      (Due to he kept renewing data, I pick sample before trial 11)
      p = 3÷152÷11 = 0.0018 = 0.18%
      N = 152 *11
      σ = √(p*(1-p)/N) = 1.002e-3 = 0.001
      Within 99.7% level of confidence
      The value of population mean (PM) falls in the region of [p- 3σ, p+ 3σ]
      Input p σ , and we get
      The PM falls in [0 , 0.0048]
      Whereas 0.6% overpass 0.48%
      Then we prove the Announced Rate 0.6% contradict with the sample. Q.E.D
    • Apaya 2020.09.11 16:49
      Thanks for the statistics! I will try to do the math with given samples too!
    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 12:43
      我不太在意抽抽出貨低 反正不抽就好
      買石油來出隊拿放大鏡拼痕跡。似乎比抽抽更可靠
      投資者卻步。這對營運方並不是好現象
    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 13:14
      We really need to thanks to 卡尔在觉醒 and his friends. TBH, collecting the sample greater than 1000 is a very very big deal.
    • Zsub 2020.09.11 16:27

      thanks for your help friends.
      we have one more question.
      In the past, it did not fail at level 2 of jewel enhancement, but now it fails.
      Maybe VS drop the success rate in jewel enhancement.

      korean user fight against to VS in korean forum(https://bs.visualshower.com/forum_ko).


    • 鏡華水樂 2020.09.11 17:13
      Yea, you get Bingo.
      And, what we can do is,
      I think, not combating with the darkness of evil company,
      but to tell beginners what should not invest,
      like drawing heros when you lvl up over 30,
      or like paying too much on buying Manda.

      The most important thing is
      viewing this game as cultivating heros,
      fighting against others just a resort of earning resource.

      So, where should I invest Mandas?
      ... Ans: Buy fuels, buy money, shorten sweep time, ....
      .....Manda- money- nitrogens- trace of tie4 hero
      ……Manda- fuels - magnifier - trace of tie4 hero

      If I'm very eager for specified hero, and willing to pay for this hero?
      .......Starter pack worths it. Others not commend, even month pack.

      So if we keep feeding them lots of money, then they would never find out where they do wrong.
    • Zsub 2020.09.11 17:32

      Maybe to express a complaint, we can do boycott using money in this game.
      Thanks for your contribution.


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